The Korea International Trade Association (KITA) has released its report on the Export Industry Business Survey Index (EBSI) for the fourth quarter of 2026, indicating sustained optimism for exports in key sectors. Cumulative exports exceeded $700 billion in early September, surpassing last year's total performance. Moving into Q4, projections remain strong, particularly for core products such as semiconductors, wireless communication devices, and ships.
The EBSI for Q4 is set at 111.3, an increase of 4.3 points from the previous quarter's 107.0, marking five consecutive quarters above the baseline of 100. Among the 15 major items surveyed, seven are expected to see improved export conditions. Semiconductors, in particular, stand out with an index of 140.7, reflecting ongoing positive expectations for the sixth consecutive quarter. This sustained demand is attributed to rising memory needs for servers, bolstered by increased AI investments from major tech companies.
Additionally, the shipbuilding sector (138.0) is anticipated to maintain its upward trajectory, supported by a robust order backlog and an increase in new orders resulting from LNG project expansions. Conversely, consumer goods (79.0) and textiles/apparel (80.1) are projected to face challenges due to a slowdown in major markets and intensified competition from low-cost products from China and Southeast Asia. The agricultural and fisheries segment (86.5) is also facing export difficulties due to rising costs associated with storage and transportation amid escalating oil prices.
In terms of the ten items surveyed within the report, four—export consultation and contracts (109.5) and facility utilization rate (106.2)—are expected to improve. Notably, the continued strong demand for exports has allowed export consultations and contracts to stay above the optimistic threshold of 100 for five consecutive quarters. Positive forecasts are particularly evident in semiconductors and wireless communication devices, which are expected to benefit from expanding AI-related demands and the impact of new product offerings.
However, exporters are also contending with significant challenges. The rise in energy prices has been highlighted as the foremost concern, with 20.4% of respondents pointing to increased raw material costs as a critical issue. This is followed by 16.5% citing increased exchange rate volatility and 15.2% pointing to rising logistics costs due to the rekindling of geopolitical conflicts.
Joonho Lee, a researcher at KITA, remarked, "We expect the export improvement trend to continue in Q4, particularly for key items like semiconductors and ships. However, uncertainties associated with raw material prices, exchange rates, and logistics costs necessitate effective risk management at the corporate level, alongside policy support to mitigate impacts on profitability."
